The LCS 2023 Championship kicks off on Thursday, July 27, with a clash between Evil Geniuses and TSM. The two North American LoL esports teams have met twice this split, and both games ended in EG’s favour.

Evil Geniuses finished the regular season in third place with a 12-6 record, four wins above TSM, who placed sixth with 8-10. But even though Evil Geniuses have won more games, it’s fair to question whether they deserve to be priced as $1.20 favourites for this match.

TSM have been middling for most of the regular season, but they’ve delivered a few good games. They rank mid-table across most performance metrics and tend to be volatile in the early game, which they’ll have to work on if they wish to do well in the playoffs.

Evil Geniuses looked excellent midway through the split, and they had a real chance to compete for the no.1 spot, but they started to crack in Week 5 when they lost against Golden Guardians, FlyQuest, and Cloud9. And it was easy to see what led to their slump.

Evil Geniuses are vulnerable in the early game, and when teams disrupt their flow before the 15-minute mark, they struggle to get back in the game. Fortunately for them, TSM’s early game hasn’t been that potent, and while we can expect them to do their research and hit EG where it hurts them the most, they might not have the tools to do it.

Evil Geniuses can sweep this series, but TSM should be good for at least one map. As such, we’re taking a chance on the correct score market.

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