?Team Secret enter the final week of play with a 3-3 record and 7-9 map differential, which sits them just above the relegation line. Brame share the same 3-3 series record, but they hold a marginally better 8-8 map differential.

Secret field a more talented roster than Brame, but with the form they’ve been showing, we would argue that the gap between these two is not as big as the latest Dota 2 betting odds might suggest.

Regardless of how strong Secret may seem on paper, they’re not playing very well and haven’t been for a couple of months now. This match has upset potential, but we are more than satisfied with the odds on Brame at the map line.

?Team Nigma crushed OG (2-0) on Saturday and with that secured themselves another season in the European DPC Upper Division. Tundra Esports, on the other side, are still far from reaching that goal.

To keep their spot in the top flight, Tundra need to defeat Nigma and hope Team Secret or OG lose their remaining games. With so much on the line, motivation won’t be an issue for Adrian “Fata” Trinks and his crew, but we still have a hard time believing that they have the tools to come out with a win.

One thing that works in Tundra’s favour is Nigma’s inconsistency. Although it seems like they’ve improved in that department, it will take more than a three-game winning streak for us to believe that Kuro “KuroKy” Salehi Takhasomi and co. are now a stable team that can consistently deliver against weaker sides.

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?Alliance enter their seventh fixture of the tournament with an impressive 5-1 record. That includes wins against some of the strongest European sides as well as a loss against Brame Esports, who stunned them 2-1 last Tuesday.

Losing against an underdog like Brame doesn’t mean much in the long run. It does, however, mean something if it’s a clear indication of an issue Gustav “s4” Magnusson and co. haven’t been able to fix for three months.

Alliance might be efficient in collecting wins, but they’re not nearly as resilient as they should be. They consistently drop maps and haven’t managed a single clean sweep since the start of February. That translates to a streak of 17 games that includes five losses and four draws.

Alliance’s tendency to give up maps is concerning and leaves them vulnerable to a possible upset, even against a team that is winless after five fixtures. As such, we are taking Hellbear Smashers at the map line.

OG claimed a massive 2-0 victory against Team Secret last week to keep themselves in the race for a ticket to the next Dota 2 Major. The two-time winners of The International are now tied in third with Team Nigma with a 3-2 record and 8-5 map differential.

These sides last met back in February when OG won 2-1 and improved their head-to-head record to 9-3. OG have since played 12 fixtures and won only five, whereas Team Nigma have played 11 games during that stretch and won only four, two of which came against Secret (2-0) and Brame (2-1).

OG and Team Nigma have met 12 times in their history, with six of those clashes ending with all three maps played – including each of their last three best-of series. While OG seem to be in better form, one solid showing doesn’t convince us that they’re that much better than Nigma.

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OG enter this match with a 2-1 record in DreamLeague S15, which isn’t too great considering they have only faced one strong opponent in Alliance and lost 1-2. Outside of that, OG picked up a 2-0 win against Brame and a slightly less convincing 2-1 victory against Hellbear Smashers.

Tundra Esports are 1-2 after three weeks of play with a 2-1 win against Hellbear Smashers and losses against Brame (0-2) and Team Secret (1-2). While Tundra’s record is far from good, they have hardly been any worse than OG.

OG are the stronger team on paper, but they’re clearly not playing as well as they should be. That doesn’t necessarily mean they’re in serious danger of losing this bout, but we don’t believe they’ll manage a 2-0 sweep either.

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Brame’s only win of the tournament so far came during the first week of play when they swept Tundra Esports. Still, they forced both Team Liquid and Team Nigma to three maps last week, so it’s hard to be overly critical of them.

Alliance enter this bout as the only team in the DreamLeague with a perfect 4-0 record. That run includes wins against Team Secret (2-1), Team Nigma (2-1), Team Alliance (2-1), and OG (2-1).

Alliance have essentially beaten all top dogs of the tournament, which sets them up for smooth sailing. Due to their dominant form, the question here is not so much whether Alliance can win, but whether they can produce a clean sweep.

While Alliance’s form suggests a 2-0 win is on the cards, the Dota 2 betting odds on Brame to win one map are a bit too high for us to look past. Alliance have been dropping maps left and right, and we believe that trend will continue on Thursday.

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?Team Secret enter this match off a 2-1 victory against Hellbear Smashers, who Tundra Esports beat with the same score just over a week ago. While it isn’t fair to put the two teams on a par based on those results alone, there is no denying that Secret haven’t been too sharp recently.

As mentioned in our previous Dota 2 betting previews, Secret aren’t playing as well as they perhaps should be, which could see them lose against weaker sides. Still, we don’t feel comfortable betting on the outsiders at the offered price.

At higher odds, picking Tundra to win one map would make sense. But at $1.63, siding with Secret to win 2-0 is a smarter choice. This is still one of the most stacked Dota 2 rosters in Europe.

?Alliance have met with Team Nigma 10 times since 2019 and won only three series. Gustav “s4” Magnusson and co. last won this matchup way back in May 2020, but they have since lost seven in a row with an aggregate score of 6-15 maps.

To make matters worse for Alliance, Team Nigma seem to be in good form having beaten Team Secret 2-0 in the DreamLeague opener. That said, Alliance haven’t been playing too poorly either, with 2-1 victories against Team Liquid and OG thus far.

The Dota 2 betting odds on Alliance are a bit inflated, likely because they historically struggle against Team Nigma, but they’re playing much better of late. Alliance have suffered only one loss in their last seven, and that sole defeat came against the Chinese juggernauts PSG.LGD.

We don’t expect a one-sided affair, but we have to take Alliance to win. A 2-1 victory for the outsiders is something we can imagine happening, and that should be an appealing pick to those looking for spicier odds.

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?Team Secret suffered a shock 0-2 loss against Team Nigma on Thursday to make it three defeats in their last four outings. To put that into perspective, Secret have lost almost half as many games in the last week as they did from January to October last year.

Hellbear Smashers haven’t achieved anything of note since January, but that doesn’t mean they should be priced as high as $7.37 here. Not only have Secret looked very shaky of late, Smashers also field former Secret carry Marcus “Ace” Hoelgaard, which should help them in forging the right strategy.

A win for Hellbear Smashers doesn’t seem likely, but we’re ready to take a shot on the outsiders to win at least one map.

?Alliance’s sole match at DreamLeague Season 15 to date happened last Wednesday when they reverse swept Team Liquid to improve their head-to-head record to 2-1-0. That was their first decent showing in a while, having ended the ONE Esports Singapore Major with three losses and four draws.

OG demolished Brame 2-0 in the tournament opener, largely thanks to the performances of returning superstar Anathan “ana” Pham. He ended the series with a combined score of 26/4/19, emerging as OG’s best player.

OG look like a completely different team with ana on the roster, but punters must not overreact to a victory against a weak team such as Brame. OG still have some fundamental issues to work on, and until we see them perform well against Europe’s elite teams, we will continue to believe they can drop a map against Alliance.

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?Tundra Esports won their tournament opener against Hellbear Smashers 2-1, but it wasn’t a clean victory. Hellbear took the series lead and came very close to securing the win, but a few silly mistakes, poor fights, and inferior team compositions allowed Tundra to come away victorious.

Brame lost their opening match of the tournament 0-2 against OG, but they held on surprisingly well and even led by 5.3k gold at 25 minutes on map one before an unfortunate team fight flipped the game upside down. Even in game two, Brame came back from a 4.2k gold deficit but were unable to match OG’s individual quality.

Tundra might have won in their last outing, but it seemed more like Hellbear Smashers losing rather than Tundra winning. While Brame are not a perfect team by any means, they looked good enough on Tuesday for us to believe they can steal at least one map.

?Betting against Team Secret throughout 2020 would have burned a massive hole in your wallet, but doing so during the recent ONE Esports Singapore Major would have proved to be very profitable. Regarded as the strongest European Dota 2 team, Secret failed to step up in the first Dota 2 Major of the year, losing two out of three bouts to finish fourth.

Due to how the seeding worked, Secret played only three games: a 1-2 loss against PSG.LGD, a 2-1 win over OB Esports x Neon, and a 0-2 loss against the eventual champions, Invictus Gaming. Team Nigma’s run at the Singapore Major was rather short-lived and largely disappointing as they managed only one draw against Vici Gaming (1-1) and four 0-2 losses against Team Liquid, PSG.LGD, AS Monaco Gambit, and T1.

Although Secret showed some cracks earlier this month, they’re still a class above Nigma, who are on a 2-1-7 run since the start of February. Clement “Puppey” Ivanov and co. have not lost against Nigma in any of their last six meetings and are 13-3 up in the head-to-head stakes since their first clash in December 2019. There is a reason why the esports bookmakers have priced Team Secret as such short favourites.

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?Tundra are far from one of the elite European Dota 2 teams, but they field a very competitive roster which became that much stronger last week when they added Jingjun “Sneyking” Wu as a replacement for Malthe “Biver” Winther. The problem we have with that change is that Tundra have yet to play an official match with Sneyking, so it’s hard to say how will he synergise with his new teammates.

Hellbear Smashers haven’t made any roster changes since they came together in January, although they decided to part ways with coach Robson “TeaGuvnor” Merritt last week. It remains to be seen whether his departure will negatively affect the team, but with veteran Marcus “Ace” Hoelgaard on the roster, TeaGuvnor’s departure shouldn’t change much.

Tundra are the stronger team on paper, but we don’t believe they should be priced as low as they are. Hellbear have done well against teams of a similar calibre, and since they will be facing a ring-rusty opponent, they should do enough to win at least one map.

?OG haven’t been doing too well this season, but things are looking up now that Anathan “ana” Pham is back on the team. The Australian Dota 2 legend’s return gives the European organisation a much-needed boost that should see them climb up the Dota Pro Circuit (DPC) ladder.

Still, that news does not change the fact that OG are a much stronger team than Brame. While it’s fair to say Brame would have had a better chance to cause some damage had OG fielded their old roster, their odds of doing so are much slimmer now.

Ana and OG have a lot of catching up to do, having won only 50 DPC points halfway through the season, but one thing we know is that OG step up when it matters. This should be an easy 2-0 for the two-time The International champions.

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